Lessons for bloggers: don’t hold back on unpopular predictions, lest you end up being right. A few weeks ago I predicted that Martha Coakley would lose the US Senate special election in Massachusetts. Every single time I brought this up, my Democratic friends would look at me like a heretic and proceed to rattle of something they read on “Daily Kos” about why I was wrong and that speaking such heresy meant I was going to Hell. And yet, none of their reasons had anything to do with actual facts or history. So here was my reasoning, and why liberal bloggers sometimes have their heads in the sand:
-Martha Coakley’s campaign was spectacularly poor. She didn’t campaign like she should have, once she got the Democratic nomination. If part of life is showing up, in campaigns, it is everything. By basically assuming she’d win by default, she made the classic mistake that allowed the other candidate to define the race. She also made several verbal gaffes that amplified her seeming disdain for talking to actual voters.
-Her campaign was run almost exclusively by DC based political people, and veteran campaign consultants and workers were sidelined by the Geniuses from DC. Another sign of something Really Bad. Pushing aside the people who know the state in favor of generic strategies based on abstract polling data and focus groups doesn’t work well. Plus, there are a lot of rings that need to be kissed in Massachusetts politics, and you don’t necessarily know which ones those are if you’re relying on whiz kids from DC.
-Massachusetts is not 100% Communist Leftist Whatever. Massachusetts has elected Republicans as Governor exclusively since 1990, and it was only in 2006, when Deval Patrick won, that the cycle broke. Also, remember that Ted Kennedy himself came dangerously close to losing his re-election in 1994 against Mitt Romney (!), and it took a Herculean effort of money and resource to ensure his re-election. Had it not been for some extremely poor choices of words by Romney, and a recognition that Kennedy was in trouble in time to do something about it, he might have well lost. Remember, in 1994, the Speaker of the US House lost his bid for re-election that year.
-President Obama is an easy target. People know right now they can call him names, they can use code words for the “n-word,” and they can call him a liar in front of the entire country, and nothing will happen. Obama’s obsession with getting the acceptance of people who quite literally, do not think he’s a legitimate holder of the office, and who will say or do anything to tear him down, is his ultimate weakness.
No one fears President Obama if they cross him, so they rip him a new one on any big or little thing (remember that bullshit crying spasm the righties had about his choice of mustard? WTF?). So of course they’re going to prop up some dude in Massachusetts and make 41 the new majority number for a Senate of 100. (Wait, what?)
There’s no reason why Obama and Democratic office seekers can’t turn this around, but it isn’t likely they will. Running around and “re thinking” and “re framing” are popular pastimes of bloggers, party insiders, and the endless amount of “staff” of officeholders, and while they’re talking and bitching, the other side wants to kick their asses. Until they decide they’re going to respond in kind, they will continue to get their asses kicked.
The sad part is the other side has nothing of substance to offer beyond blind rage. When we had them in charge of Everything (President, Senate, House, SCOTUS), the best they could come up with was Tom DeLay/Jack Abramhoff style corruption, a war without end, and endless trillions added to the deficit, and a bubble economy that just blew up on us. But we don’t think about that anymore, right?
PS: Oh, and one other thing: despite what the folks Outside of California assume about our Golden State, California is not 1000% Communist either. Look at the history of statewide initiatives and elections starting in 1982, and see just how well “lefties” do. Barbara Boxer has always had to run a tough race, and the Democratic hold on statewide offices has NEVER been absolute, ever.
The fact the California State Democratic Party acts like it IS 1000% Democrat is well, I suppose good news for Republicans?
PPS: Jack Donaghy is one of my all time favorite characters on TV. F*ck yeah, Jack!
- California Life
- California Politics
- Campaign Tactics & Analysis
- Debunking Politicos Pundits + Spin
- Democratic Party Chatter
- Gov. Doofinator's Follies
- Instant Runoff Voting FAIL
- Links of Interest
- Los Angeles Politics
- Political Direct Mail Archive – 2006
- Political Direct Mail Archive – 2007
- Political Direct Mail Archive – 2008
- Politics of Political Reform
- Pop Culture & Society
- San Francisco Politics
- Website News